3 weeks ago I predicted a DRIP price for Jan 1st:
The article was based on the current selling pressure at the time, and the prediction was pretty bearish: DRIP at $0.26!
Fortunately, the underlying data has changed and the selling pressure has eased off quite a bit. This provides a good opportunity for an updated prediction, based on the recent market sentiment.
TheDripBuzz - are you a FUD'er?
I admit that the beginning of my DRIP blog journey has not been filled with stories of unicorns and rainbows. My view of DRIP has shifted periodically based on actual events and in the recent few weeks or months, it has been quite on the negative side. However, this is purely based on the way I see and analyze the underlying data.
For all we know, e.g. the Fiat on-ramp could come as a nice Christmas gift and provide some long-needed x-mas spirit!
I wish the DRIP community would stop dividing their members between moon boys and FUD'ers. In this blog, I try to give an unbiased view of the DRIP world based on facts and data, whether they be positive or negative.
For inspiration, please check out this video from one of my favorite YT channels - Drip Coach. More often than not, he seems to have read my mind regarding what's going on, and in this video, he speaks about the topic of FUD. I Highly recommending watching it!
To answer my own question, I am not a FUD'er, but I am currently a bit on the bearish side for DRIP in the short term. In the long term - the jury is still out. I am working on a few fundamental pieces to try to answer what will happen to DRIP in the long term.
DRIP Price prediction for Jan 1st
In the first article, I analyzed the actual selling pressure together with tax vault buybacks and deposits in order to predict a price for Jan 1st. This gave a daily decline of -5.74% in the period of Nov 12th when the article was first published until Jan 1st, as the DRIP price prognosis fell from 2.61 to 0.26.
A daily decline of almost 6% was quite extreme but still based on realities. One theory is that this has been caused by people selling their DRIP to get into the Animal Farm. In any case, the selling pressure has since eased off, and by using actual data for the last two weeks, I find that the average daily decline of the DRIP price has been -1.53%. Still quite bearish, but far from the extreme values that we saw at the beginning of November.
Instead of redoing all the analysis in the original article, I simply replaced the -5.74% decline with the more pleasant -1.53% and calculated an updated predicted price. Are you ready?
According to this, the DRIP price will be $1.08 on Jan 1st, 2023(!)
Final thoughts about the price prediction and DRIP in general
What do you think of a $1.08 DRIP token price? Will it ruin your new year's mood or is it better than you feared?
For me, it is definitely the latter. For a while there, things looked pretty gloomy. I won't say things are starting to look up yet - but please remember that this prediction is based on the current state of affairs and that nothing changes.
If we look at the DRIP Roadmap there are some potential bright spots up ahead. We don't know if any of these will be launched before the New Year, but if you have a long time horizon that should not matter.
Also, the way things are now, not much is needed in order to provide some positivity to the community. For all we know, e.g. the Fiat on-ramp could come as a nice Christmas gift and provide some long-needed x-mas spirit!
Until then, keep calm and DRIP on!
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